SHFE tin fluctuates under pressure, LME tin awaits macro breakthrough [SMM tin midday review]

SHFE Tin and LME Tin Market Commentary at Noon on July 7, 2025

As of the noon session today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) continued to be in the doldrums, temporarily quoted at 266,610 yuan/mt, down slightly by 0.88% from the previous day.

**Prominent ore-side issues**: The resumption of tin ore production in Myanmar's Wa region has been slow, coupled with Thailand's ban on Myanmar's transit transportation, blocking tin ore import channels. Domestic tin ore imports in June are expected to decrease by 500-1,000 mt. **Ongoing production cuts in the smelting sector**: Yunnan and Jiangxi smelters generally have less than 30 days of raw material inventory. Some enterprises are undergoing maintenance or implementing gradient production cuts, tightening the marginal supply of refined tin.

The open interest of the most-traded SHFE tin contract has slightly decreased, with bulls showing an increased willingness to take profits. The market is adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards the long-term impact of China-US tariff policies (effective August 1) and domestic "anti-cut-throat competition" policies on the PV industry chain.

The LME tin main contract was quoted at 33,560 US dollars/mt at noon, down slightly by 0.88%, continuing to fluctuate rangebound:

**US fiscal policy**: The passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill has raised the debt ceiling, but under high interest rates, the Treasury's financing pressure may force the US Fed to cut interest rates in September. The US dollar index has slightly dropped to 96.99, providing potential support for metal prices.

SHFE tin may maintain sideways movement within the range of 265,000-272,000 yuan/mt, with upside limited by inventory buildup and downside supported by ore-side costs.

LME tin should focus on the key resistance levels of 33,000-34,000 US dollars/mt.